Official estimates suggest that the number of study permit applications will double by 2027, reaching an estimated 1.4 million applications annually.
Official estimates suggest that the number of study permit applications will double by 2027, reaching an estimated 1.4 million applications annually.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada is bracing for a surge in the number of foreign students applying to study in the country. According to an internal policy document, the IRCC foresees a remarkable increase, with foreign student applications potentially reaching 1.4 million annually by 2027.
While this projection reflects the growing popularity of Canadian institutions among international students, it also raises concerns about the sustainability and impact of such rapid growth.
Rise in foreign student applications
The immigration department’s internal document discusses the establishment of a “trusted” class of universities and colleges that would expedite the processing of study permits for international students attending these institutions. It reveals that study permit applications from overseas students have surged, increasing by nearly 300,000 per year from 2019 to 2022.
The document outlines projections that suggest a near doubling of study permit applications by 2027, reaching an estimated 1.4 million applications annually. These figures, shared with a select group of universities and colleges involved in a pilot initiative for trusted institutions, indicate a trajectory of growth. The IRCC predicts approximately 949,000 applications for this year, slightly over one million for the next year, with numbers continuing to rise to 1.1 million in 2025, 1.28 million in 2026 and peaking at 1.4 million in 2027.
Challenges and economic contribution
The surge in foreign student numbers has led to disruptions in processing times for study permits to enter Canada. Moreover, many universities and colleges have become reliant on international students for revenue, potentially compromising the quality of education experiences for these students within Canada.
A recent Senate report on Canada’s international student program revealed that numerous international students are compelled to reside in overcrowded and substandard housing.
Despite paying notably higher tuition fees than Canadian students, many international students do not receive adequate accommodation. Collectively, these students contribute approximately $22 billion to the Canadian economy each year.
Trusted institutions
To qualify as trusted institutions, universities and colleges must meet specific metrics and share data annually with the IRCC. This data includes information on the number and percentage of international students residing in university housing.
According to Alex Usher, founder of Higher Education Strategy Associates, on-campus housing is frequently not the most cost-effective option. He raises concern that using this metric to evaluate institutions could potentially favor universities that attract wealthier international students.
Housing Minister Sean Fraser and Immigration Minister Marc Miller have discussed implementing a cap on international student numbers to address the pressure on rental markets and rising costs. These discussions highlight the government’s concern over the impact of the influx of foreign students on Canada’s housing and economic landscape.
The IRCC will assess various factors to determine whether universities and colleges qualify as trusted institutions, including retention rates, completion rates, language proficiency and transition to permanent residency rates.
After a pilot phase, institutions will have the opportunity to apply for inclusion in the trusted institutions system, with the goal of implementing it by the spring of the following year. This system could expedite processing for foreign students applying to approved institutions starting in the 2024 academic session.
