The number of temporary graduates is predicted to rise even more. With limited opportunities for permanent residency, these graduates, like the COVID visa holders, face an “immigration limbo.”
The number of temporary graduates is predicted to rise even more. With limited opportunities for permanent residency, these graduates, like the COVID visa holders, face an “immigration limbo.”
As the international student population swells in Australia, the nation teeters on the brink of a crisis reminiscent of the student visa crashes in 1989-90, 2008-09, and 2019-20, raising concerns of a potentially catastrophic fallout for the country.
A columnist and a former deputy immigration secretary, Abul Rizvi flagged the disparities and the imminent threat in the Australian immigration system in his article published in his article in the Independent Australia.
In his article, he noted that as of May 2023, the student count stood at 610,065, approaching the peak of 633,816 recorded in September 2019, marking an unprecedented growth rate over the past 18 months since the reopening of international borders.
Rizvi cited that these developments coincide with a surge in temporary graduate visa holders (Subclass 485) and those under the special COVID visa (Subclass 408), reaching a record 194,883 in May 2023.
Coupled with the Albanese Government’s new policy extending temporary graduate visas for university degree holders, the number of temporary graduates is predicted to rise even more. With limited opportunities for permanent residency, these graduates, like the COVID visa holders, face an “immigration limbo.”
The surge in student numbers is being fueled by offshore student visa applications, which have exceeded pre-COVID records every month since February 2022. In May 2023, there were 45,784 such applications, the highest in the country’s history, likely driven by unlimited student work rights. Yet, the refusal rate for these applications has also hit an all-time high of 20.1 percent for the fiscal year 2022-23, surpassing the previous record of 16.7 percent in 2009-10.
Reports of substantial fraud in the caseload add another layer of complexity to the issue, straining the resources of the Department of Home Affairs and threatening the sustainability of the system. The government’s recent restrictions on student work rights may help curb the growth of offshore student applications and associated fraud, but these will also compound the difficulties faced by students already in Australia struggling with high living costs and rents.
Rizvi noted that there are several measures under consideration, including replacing the “genuine temporary entry” requirement with a “genuine student” requirement and adjusting risk ratings for processing student visa applications. These measures, however, would likely face resistance from higher education lobby groups, and could not be implemented until at least November 2023.
While the Albanese Government has taken some steps to address these issues, the situation is precarious, dependent on various factors, including the state of the labor market and potential regulatory reforms. Without a comprehensive, swift, and strategic response, a soft landing for the student visa policy may be unlikely.
